NBA best bets: Clippers vs. Magic odds, pick, prediction for 3/29

Clippers vs. Magic Odds

Friday, Mar 29, 7 p.m. ET, BSFL

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Los Angeles Clippers

I noted the Clippers' struggles above, but let's take a closer look. On Feb. 5, the Clippers wrapped up a seven-game road trip with a 149-144 win over the Atlanta Hawks, taking six of those seven road games to move to 34-15, third best in the entire NBA. Considering they also started the season 3-7, it was the culmination of an absurd 12-week stretch in which they went 31-8 and looked like arguably the best team in basketball.

It didn't look like a lucky stretch, or even a schedule-aided stretch, and it was during the most important and visible stretch of the NBA season. There's a chance we look back on that strong run as the basis for trusting the Clippers if they succeed this postseason.

However, it's been very shaky ever since. Since Feb. 5, the Clippers are 11-12 with a -2.6 net rating. Because of the lofty standard they had set, they are also a notable 6-17 against the spread over that stretch, and it's only gotten worse of late. They have failed to cover in their last four; six of their last seven; eight of their last 10; and 10 of their last 13. Their offensive and defensive rating have basically flipped, going from around a 118 offensive rating to around 115, and going from around a 115 defensive rating to around 118.

They've had a few injuries here and there, but for the most part they just haven't played well.

Orlando Magic

Those numbers are bad news for the Clippers no matter what, but especially against an opponent that is doing the opposite. It was right around the time the Clippers started faltering that the Magic got hot. Since Jan. 30, the Magic are 18-7 with a +4.9 net rating. Some of that has been schedule-aided, but their defense has been absolutely elite, and the bench unit has emerged as an incredibly strong unit for Orlando.

The Magic have been the best team in basketball against the spread all season, and this recent stretch has been no different. They have covered 19 of their last 27 games, and for the season as a whole are 47-25 ATS, for a wild +24.6% ROI for Magic backers. Part of that is exceeding expectations, part of that is a defense that keeps them in basically every game and part of that is a home court that has been among the best in the Association.

Orlando's +6.9 home net rating is seventh in the NBA, and the Magic are a league-leading 25-11 ATS at the Kia Center.

Clippers vs. Magic

Betting Pick & Prediction

All of that comes together to bring me, unsurprisingly, to the Magic side of this matchup. Bettors can currently grab the Magic at +1.5, or take them on the moneyline at +105.

If you're looking for a player prop to add to your look, I think it's a great matchup for Mo Wagner off the bench for Orlando, who can take advantage (along with the rest of this strong rebounding team) of the Clippers' inadequacies on the glass. I'll look for a Wagner points + rebounds + assists prop if it pops around the same price as last game (13.5).

Pick: Magic Moneyline | Mo Wagner Props