Athletics vs. Yankees odds, pick, predictions for Monday 4/22: Expect a ton of runs

Athletics vs. Yankees Odds

Monday, April 22, 1:05 p.m. ET, YES | NBCSCA

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Oakland Athletics

Sears has gotten off to a tough start this season, posting a 4.36 ERA through his first four starts. Based on his underlying metrics, further regression is likely as he ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and average exit velocity.

This expected regression is likely to come against his former team as he's 0-3 against the Yankees in his career and has a fade-worthy 7.63 ERA over those outings. There were nine or more total runs scored in two of those three games.

However, the left-hander could get some run support here. Although it's a small sample size, Oakland's lineup boasts a .333 BA, a .417 SLG and a .376 wOBA through 14 career plate appearances against Rodon.

New York Yankees

Rodon has gotten off to a solid start in 2024, posting a 3.66 ERA through four starts. However, he has been more "fortunate" than dominant, and regression is likely looming as he also has a 1.68 WHIP.

Like Sears, Rodon's underlying metrics are poor — Rodon ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and average exit velocity. If he gets chased early, then New York's bullpen also shouldn't be trusted.

The Yankees' relief pitching ranks 25th in xFIP. However, run support shouldn't be an issue as New York ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, OPS and home runs.

This lineup has also torched Sears in the past and boasts a .314 BA, a .714 SLG and a .442 wOBA through 37 career plate appearances. The analytics behind those splits suggest those dominant numbers aren't fluky as the Yankees own a .331 xBA, a .703 xSLG and a .447 xwOBA over the same sample size.

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Athletics vs. Yankees

Betting Pick & Prediction

This total is only set at eight because Rodon's 3.66 ERA doesn't jump off the page as a huge problem, especially when facing Oakland. However, he hasn't pitched as well as that number indicates and is due for regression, which could come in this spot.

On the other hand, Sears' numbers are poor, his analytics are even worse and he has routinely gotten shelled by the Yankees. The trends also point to the over, given that there have been eight or more total runs scored in each of Oakland's past four games, in six of New York's past eight and in five of the past six meetings between these clubs.

Pick: Over 8 (-110 at FanDuel | Play to -115)